CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Many changes and trends in the maritime region will dramatically affect American citizens, friends, and interests in the 21st century. These trends have been identified from environmental scans, demographic forecasts, maritime commerce and transportation forecasts, and national security assessments. On the basis of these and other insightful studies, the Coast Guard believes that there will be no major changes to its traditional roles and missions. Rather, mission emphasis will shift based on changing national priorities. Future pressures on the Nation’s maritime region will increase demand for Coast Guard services. It will be a major challenge to maintain excellent service to America. Austere budgets and a workforce that will remain fairly constant in numbers will constrain the Coast Guard’s capacity to handle elevated operational tempos. The Coast Guard will take full advantage of evolving opportunities – especially new technologies and quality management – to meet these challenges.
The world will remain in a state of continuous change. With global war less likely, operations other than war, such as peacekeeping, crisis response, and counterterrorism, will proliferate. Nation states will provide the basic geopolitical framework, but national boundaries will continue to blur as novel economic and security relationships emerge. Greater numbers of powerful non-state actors with diverse interests will influence the global community. New multilateral alliances and ad hoc coalitions will form to combat transnational crises and sophisticated international criminal cartels that operate well beyond the control of any single state. Mass migrations, terrorism, and crime will continue to spill beyond traditional borders and onto the seaways. Maritime transportation of illegal drugs and economic migrants to the United States will increase. Adversaries will look to exploit critical security regions, including transportation systems, ports, straits, and coastal areas, in unconventional ways. The United States will integrate diplomatic, economic, political, and military initiatives to foster a more stable international system.
America will become more dependent upon international trade, the vast majority of which will be transported on the water. U.S. maritime trade will double, if not triple, by 2020. Trade with Asian-Pacific and Latin American countries will increase more than with other world regions. Efficient maritime transportation will become more critical to America’s economy and competitiveness. Global seaborne trade will bring larger numbers of ultra-large, deep-draft, and minimally crewed ships. America’s inland and coastal commerce will experience increased barge and tow traffic. Higher volumes of oil, hazardous materials, and bulk commodities are likely. Just-in-time delivery of raw materials and finished goods will become the norm, magnifying the consequences of disruptions and emphasizing the importance of the marine transportation system’s reliability. Furthermore, growing numbers of people will have the resources and leisure time to spend on cruises and recreational boating. Collectively, this congestion on America’s waterways will create a greater need for a well-integrated intermodal transportation system with close links among the sea, land, and air components.
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Created: August
1998