Introduction |
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After the agency makes all of the decisions required to develop a
project-specific PRS, the final step required before actually using the
specification is the generation of the appropriate preconstruction output.
This chapter is provided as a step-by-step guide to generating
preconstruction output for both Level 1 and Level 2 specifications.
Identifying
Required Inputs |
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A number of steps are the same whether the agency chooses a Level 1 or
Level 2 pay adjustment procedure. These steps require the collection of
much project-specific information required to conduct LCC simulations. The
specific steps for identifying the required inputs are detailed below.
Step 1—Define the General Project Information.
The general project information should be identified as a first step.
This information includes items such as project location, lane
configuration, starting and ending stations, and lane widths. These are
selected in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section
titled Design-Related
Variables, in chapter 5 of this volume.
Step
2—Define Pavement Performance. The agency must select the
distress indicators that will be used to define pavement performance.
These are selected in accordance with the guidelines presented in the
section titled Defining
Pavement Performance, in chapter 5 of this
volume.
Step 3—Select the AQC's to be Included in the
Specification. The agency must select the AQC's that are to be
sampled and tested for acceptance. These are selected in accordance with
the guidelines presented in the section titled Selection of
Included AQC's, in chapter 5 of this volume.
Step
4—Define the Required Constant Values. A number of design-,
climatic-, and traffic- related variables must be defined for use in the
chosen distress indicator models. These are selected in accordance with
the guidelines presented in the section titled Identification
of Constant Variable Values, in chapter 5 of this
volume.
Step 5—Define the AQC Acceptance Sampling and
Testing Plan. The agency must define the sampling and testing
procedures to be used in measuring the AQC's in the field. This plan not
only defines the actual required sampling and testing methods to be
used, but also defines the number of samples per sublot, the methods for
determining random sampling locations, and some general information on
retesting. The defined acceptance sampling and testing plan is
determined in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section
titled Selecting an
AQC Acceptance Sampling and Testing Plan, in chapter 5 of this
volume.
Step 6—Define the Required As-Designed AQC Target
Values. The agency must select as-designed target means and
standard deviations for each of the included AQC's. (Note: The selected
means and standard deviations are dependent on the selected sampling and
testing plan—defined in step 5.) Guidelines for selecting appropriate
target values (interpreting existing specifications or from historical
AQC construction data) are presented in the section titled Selection of AQC
Target Values, in chapter 5 of this volume.
Step
7—Define Lots and Sublots. Lots and sublots must be clearly
defined for the project. This primarily consists of defining the target
lengths of each. The definitions for both lots and sublots are
determined in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section
titled Definition of Lots
and Sublots, in chapter 5 of this volume.
Step
8—Define the Maintenance and Rehabilitation Plan. The agency
must select an appropriate M & R plan to be used for the specific
project. This involves selecting the type and frequency of application
for maintenance, localized rehabilitation, and global rehabilitation
activities. The defined M & R plan is determined in accordance with
the guidelines presented in the section titled Selecting a
Maintenance and Rehabilitation Plan, in chapter 5 of this
volume.
Step 9—Define the Included Costs. The
agency must identify the particular costs to be included in the overall
lot LCC. These decisions include identifying the M & R unit costs
associated with the chosen M & R activities, deciding on an
appropriate percentage of user costs to be included, and determining an
appropriate discount rate. All of these cost-related decisions are made
in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section titled Cost-Related
Decisions, in chapter 5 of this volume.
Step
10—Define the Simulation Parameters. In order to conduct any LCC
simulations for the as-designed or as-constructed pavement, the agency
must define the required simulation parameters, such as the number of
simulation lots required to simulate a lot LCC and the appropriate range
of number of sublots per lot. These simulation-related parameters are
determined in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section
titled Selecting
Simulation Parameters, in chapter 5 of this
volume.
Step 11—Choose the Appropriate Pay Adjustment
Procedure. The agency must select one of two pay adjustment
methods available in the prototype PRS—Level 1 or Level 2. Level 1
should be selected for initial implementation of PRS. This decision is
made in accordance with the guidelines presented in the section titled
Selecting
a Pay Adjustment Procedure (Level 1 or Level 2), in chapter 6 of
this volume. The details for each of these pay adjustment methods are
explained separately in the following sections.
Level 1—Generating
Individual AQC Pay Factor Curves |
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For the Level 1 specification, the preconstruction output involves
simulating data points making up the individual AQC pay factor charts.
Each AQC pay factor chart is made up of a series of pay factor curves
(each specific to a different AQC standard deviation) plotted over a
chosen AQC mean range. Pay factor regression equations are fit through the
data making up each pay factor curve. Individual AQC pay factors may then
be determined using the developed regression equations (or read directly
from these charts) by knowing the as-constructed AQC lot means and
standard deviations. If the measured AQC standard deviation does not
exactly match that of one of the simulated pay factor curves, the pay
factor is determined by interpolating between the appropriate pay factor
equations. An explanation of the development of the Level 1 pay factor
curves (and corresponding pay factor regression equations) is contained in
more detail in this section.
Level 1, Step 12—Simulate the As-Designed LCC.
In order to calculate pay factors for different hypothetical levels of
as-constructed AQC quality, the representative target as-designed LCC
must first be simulated. The PaveSpec 2.0 specification simulation
software is used to estimate representative target as-designed LCC's for
the different numbers of sublots per lot chosen by the agency (see the
section titled Selecting
Simulation Parameters, in chapter 5 of this volume). For
example, the agency may decide to simulate as-designed LCC's for three
different scenarios where the number of sublots per lot would equal 3,
4, and 5. Each of these simulated LCC's (representing a specific number
of sublots per lot) is a function of many different agency-defined
variables, including the number of simulation lots, acceptance and
sampling plan, M & R plan, AQC target values, analysis life, and
chosen costs. Individual Level 1 pay factor charts will be developed
independently for each scenario chosen by the agency.
Level
1, Step 13—Choose a Range of As-Constructed Means for Each AQC.
Reasonable ranges of AQC means are selected that will define the values
used in the simulation of the Level 1 AQC pay factor curves. These
chosen ranges of AQC simulation means are based on the chosen AQC target
values. The agency is required to define the range of the AQC means and
the number of simulation points within the range. The agency-chosen
values will be used to define the x-axis range of the developed Level 1
pay factor charts. It is recommended that the boundary conditions of
this range be defined as the agency-defined AQC RQL's and MQL's (see the
section titled Retesting
Procedures in chapter 5 of this volume).
Level 1,
Step 14—Choose a Range of As-Constructed Standard Deviation Levels for
Each AQC. The pay factor curves (contained in the Level 1 pay
factor charts) depend not only on the as-constructed AQC mean, but also
on the as-constructed AQC standard deviation. Therefore, it is important
to choose a range of as-constructed standard deviation levels that will
show the influence of the AQC variability. Three to five different
levels of standard deviation are typically chosen for each AQC. (One of
the chosen standard deviation levels should always be the AQC target
standard deviation.)
Level 1, Step 15—Simulate
As-Constructed LCC's and Calculate an Independent AQC Pay Factor for
Each Hypothetical As-Constructed Mean/ Standard Deviation Pair.
The hypothetical as-constructed mean/standard deviation pair values
(coming from combinations of means and standard deviations defined in
Level 1, steps 13 and 14, respectively) are used to define individual
simulation sessions in PaveSpec. Each AQC is investigated independently
for each simulation session (e.g., if strength is being investigated,
all of the other AQC as-constructed means and standard deviations are
set equal to the target values). Each mean/standard deviation pair is
used in PaveSpec to simulate a corresponding representative
as-constructed LCC mean (AC-LCCMEAN). A pay factor is
calculated for each hypothetical pair using equation 3 in
chapter 3 of this volume. (Note: Pay factors are calculated using an
agency-selected appropriate bid price determined in accordance with the
guidelines set forth in the section titled Selecting an
Appropriate Bid Price for Developing Level 1 Preconstruction
Output in chapter 5.)
Level 1, Step 16—Determine
Individual AQC Pay Factor Regression Equations. Best fit
regression equations are defined for each set of simulated pay factors
related to each as-constructed AQC standard deviation (chosen in Level
1, step 14). These individual pay factor equations are generated using
the PaveSpec 2.0 software.
Level 1, Step 17—Plot Pay-Factor
Equations vs. AQC Mean. The defined pay factor regression
equations (determined in Level 1, step 16) can be graphed easily as a
function of the AQC mean. Pay factor charts (containing plots of all of
the regression equations defined in Level 1, step 16) are then plotted
for each AQC independently. These charts are created for each number of
sublots per lot chosen by the agency (see the section titled Selecting
Simulation Parameters in chapter 5 of this
volume).
Level 1, Step 18—Define the CPF Equation.
The agency must define a governing CPF equation in accordance with the
guidelines presented in the section titled Defining
a Level 1 Composite Pay Factor Equation, in chapter 6 of this
volume.
Level 1, Step 19—Define Pay Factor Limits.
The agency must define pay factor limits that are applied to the
computed individual AQC pay factors, or the lot CPF, or both. Any chosen
pay factor limits are determined in accordance with the guidelines
presented in the section titled Selecting
Pay Factor Limits, in chapter 6 of this volume.
Level 2—Simulating
the As-Designed LCC |
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For a Level 2 specification, the preconstruction output only involves
the simulation of the target as-designed life-cycle cost
(LCCDES). Overall lot pay factors are calculated directly as a
function of this LCCDES, the determined as-constructed LCC
(LCCCON), and the contract bid price (using equation 3 in
chapter 3 of this volume). This Level 2 LCCDES is determined
using the same procedure described in Level 1, Step 12.
Developing
Operating Characteristic Curves |
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Under the Level 1 PRS, operating characteristic (OC) curves are
generated for each AQC using the PaveSpec 2.0 computer software. Each set
of OC curves is developed specific to a defined sampling plan (i.e.,
number of sublots, number of samples per sublot, and sample and test
types). The following steps outline the general procedure used within the
software to generate these charts:
For each AQC, the following
applies:
- Distributions of pay factors for different AQC mean values (over
the chosen range of AQC means) are simulated by setting the
as-constructed AQC standard deviation equal to the target value. Each
distribution is the result of a minimum of 500 simulated lot pay
factors.
- Pay factor means and standard deviations (computed at each
hypothetically chosen AQC mean) are plotted over the chosen range of
AQC means. Relationships of pay factor mean and pay factor standard
deviation versus AQC mean are determined. Figures 20 and 21 illustrate
these respective relationships for slab thickness on an example
project. Figure 20 is commonly referred to as an expected pay (EP)
curve.
- The user must define the different pay factor acceptance levels
for which the probability of acceptance will be investigated (e.g.,
PF ³ 80%, PF ³ 100%,
PF ³ 110%).
- Finally, OC curves for each of the chosen pay factor acceptance
levels are plotted using the results of steps 1 through 3. Figure 22
contains the example OC chart plotted using the relationships
determined for the slab thickness example (determined in step
2).
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Figure 20. Example of a simulated pay
factor mean versus AQC mean relationship used to develop OC curves
for a Level 1 PRS. |
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Figure 21. Example of a simulated pay
factor standard deviation versus AQC mean relationship used to
develop OC curves for a Level 1
PRS. |
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Figure 22. Example of an OC curve
constructed for a Level 1 PRS—case of four sublots and two samples
per sublot (for each AQC). This chart reflects the relationships
presented in figures 20 and 21. |
Different examples of interpreting figure 22 are given as the
following:
- If the contractor wishes to have a 50-percent probability that
he/she will obtain a PF ³ 100 percent, then a
mean slab thickness of 233 mm must be constructed.
- If the contractor wishes to have a 90-percent probability that
he/she will obtain a PF ³ 100 percent, then a
mean slab thickness of 240 mm must be constructed.
- If the contractor wishes to have a 90-percent probability that
he/she will obtain a PF ³ 110 percent, then a
mean slab thickness of 260 mm must be constructed.
- f the contractor actually builds a mean slab thickness of 223 mm
(the target was 233 mm), the probability that he/she will receive a PF
³ 100 percent is approximately 5 percent. The
probability that he/she will receive a PF ³ 90
percent is 70 percent.
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