Appendix A. Hypotheses

**Table 5. Key Hypotheses**
Hypothesis Number	Hypothesis	MOE	Data Source	Proposed Analysis Method
1	The project will result in a reduction in operations and planning costs and improved service planning.	Time needed to complete COA studies Cost of COA studies Changes to routes/services as a result of COA studies Changes in costs to operate modified routes/services	MST staff interviews	Before and after analysis of characteristics of comprehensive operational analysis (COA) studies.
2	The project will result in improved on-time performance of MST operation	Early/late statistics	MST archived data	Before and after analysis of schedule adherence data
3	The project will result in an increase in the reliability of services	On-time performance of whole fixed route system On time performance by route On-time performance by trip On-time performance by operator On-time performance during peak hour operation On-time performance during off-peak hour operation	MST archived data	Analyze change in on-time performance due to the ITS Augmentation project
4	The project will enhance system productivity	Number of passengers Platform hours* Transit vehicle miles Boardings/hour Passenger miles per employee or revenue dollar Cost of operation and maintenance Cost per passenger mile System revenue	MST archived data	Before and after analysis of data
5	The project will result in an improvement in maintenance scheduling and planning	Staff perceptions of the use of remote diagnostics Number of false remote diagnostic messages Number of total remote diagnostic messages	MST archived data regarding remote diagnostics MST staff interviews	Qualitative assessment regarding the use of remote diagnostics
* Platform hours refer to the time spent by a transit vehicle (in this case a bus) in service between vehicle pull-in and pull-out.

**Table 6. Secondary Hypotheses**
Hypothesis Number	Hypothesis	MOE	Data Need	Proposed Analysis Method
6	The project will result in improved customer satisfaction	Customer perception of the following technology elements has to be measured: On-board automated announcements Real-time traveler information in transit centers Automated trip planning on website Translink fare payment system Changes in travel times due to changes in routes and service frequencies (headways) Changes in wait times at stops Change in time spent talking to customer service	Customer satisfaction survey data Surveys completed for COA studies	Qualitative analysis of customer survey data
7	The project will result in an increase in ridership	Ridership per route Overall system ridership Ridership by stop Peak ridership Off-peak ridership	MST archived data	Before and after analysis of ridership
8	The project will result in an improvement in driver/ passenger security	Number of on-board incidents Number of on-board incidents where perpetrator identified Number of transit center incidents Number of transit center incidents where perpetrator identified	MST archived data from digital cameras MST staff interviews	Before and after analysis of the data. Qualitative analysis needed
9	The project will result in a reduction in the travel times of specific routes where TSP is deployed	Travel time per route Change in average vehicle speeds	MST staff Interviews MST archived data	Before and after TSP deployment analysis of travel times and vehicle speeds
10	The project will help reduce response time for incidents and emergency management	Change in response time for incidents	Staff interviews	Before and after analysis of MST incident data
11	The project will result in a reduction in vehicle hours	Non-revenue vehicle hours Non-revenue vehicle miles Revenue vehicle hours Revenue vehicle miles	MST archived data	Before and after analysis of vehicle hours and miles
12	The project will reduce the number of customer complaints	Change in number of complaints	MST archived data	Before and after analysis of complaint data
13	The project will result in improved facility security	Number of registered cases of theft Number of registered cases of theft with trespassers identified	MST archived data from digital cameras MST staff interviews	Before and after analysis of the data; Qualitative analysis needed
14	The project will establish a comprehensive reporting system.	Change in time taken in generating daily, monthly and periodic operational reports Change in time taken in generating annual NTD reports Number and types of reports generated	MST staff interviews	Analysis of staff interviews; Before and after analysis of data
15	The project will result in reduced cases of false financial claims	Financial claim statistics	MST staff interviews	Analysis of financial claims before and after the surveillance system deployment

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